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Wednesday June 28, 2017

hillary

We are a few days away from the first opportunity for the American Democrat voter to voice their collective opinion on a set of candidates. They are Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. O’Malley has been polling in the single digits since his announcement. Sanders poll numbers have been skyrocketing at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Why?

I can’t recall a candidate from the USA’s high office that is as well rounded and on paper more qualified to be Commander In Chief than Hillary Clinton. She has been in public life as First Lady of Arkansas, The United States, a US Senator from New York and held the cabinet post of Secretary of State. Her involvement in domestic and international affairs has been non-stop for three decades. She has been listed a number of times as being the most respected woman in the world. She has an Ivy League background and has a post graduate degree, there is nothing on paper that would indicate that she should hold this high office.

A short twelve months ago there was no one or anything that could stop a landslide election victory.

In 2008, the situation was eerily similar. Today, Clinton is neck and neck vs Sanders in Iowa and getting crushed in New Hampshire. Sanders has been marginalized by the mainstream media with the very few mentions that he had received. There was a count of TV speak time. Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign for president that was never even going to happen received 3x the discussion time on TV networks. Hillary has basically unlimited funding compared to Sanders smaller pool that has been raised with an average donation of $32.00 from lots of individual contributors – folks who have never given money to a campaign before.

Clinton has been hunted for years – she really has.

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While Secretary of State, a tragedy took place on her watch. Her opponents jumped on her and haven’t let up – they poured 14m in tax payer money to try to make the event seem as negligence or lack of concern on her part. I can’t imagine that’s the case. Also, most of the people trying to frag Clinton for that incident hated her before she was Secretary of State. Clinton has received no direct “blame” for the incident. She has however had her name dragged through the mud for years. Imagine this, you are running for president, and an action movie recapping the incident is released right before the primaries. Clinton even has a 24 hour news network that appears to exist only to point out her possible flaws. It is truly amazing that she hasn’t moved into a cave and given the USA the finger by now.

So what’s the issue? I intend to list a pile of issues – then I will tell you what it’s really all about. Does that sound fun?

Is it the Old Stars and Bars Logo on her husband’s 1992 campaign merchandise? I doubt it, Clinton polls very well in the African American community. Add on to that response some of her husband’s policies, like 3 strikes, Work to Welfare, Nafta, Gatt, etc – see above. No negative impact.

clinton stars and bars

Connections to Wall Street – maybe, but doesn’t it appear that every candidate has at least some connection to big business, maybe a touch.

She is a Carpet Bagger. Hillary moves from the White House to New York State and sets up residence where she campaigns. She wins a seat in the US Senate that there was no way in the world she could lose. If the Democrat Party backed Charles Manson in New York for Senate, Manson would win the gig. Sure this angers some people, but frankly it isn’t discussed, some people don’t remember and many more don’t care.

Was it her response to her husband’s infidelity? Did it come across a little bit that she didn’t care what Bill Clinton did and she was going to play it safe and not condemn him publically. This is viewed by pundits as sucking it up for power. This has net neutral impact and quite a few Americans think she gave the perfect response by not breaking up their family.

Is it the flip flopping on positions? Anti-Gay Marriage, Anti Glass Stegall (banking regulation), Pro Health Care for all- but only if the Insurance Industry was allowed to prosper, Pro TPP, Pro Iraq war, Pro Patriot act – morphing positions according to the prevailing current in society. Sadly, no one really calls her out on waffling either. Maybe a hint here and there but she hasn’t received the title of waffle house which many other candidates have received for changing positions less than Clinton. This isn’t it.

Is it her gender – nope – that is still a positive

Is it her perceived “meanness” personified by not dropping out of the 2008 race vs Obama even though she had no path to victory? Nope – but it should be.

Is it that she changes her accent based on the part of the country she is standing in? Nope, people even think that bit is folksy.

Is it the secrecy/private server/ email debacle – maybe a little.

Here it is – the mic drop moment.

Why is Hillary in a tight race when she had the entire world in front of her? Americans will not vote for who they perceive are career politicians for the Office of President.

Dwight Eisenhower – A popular War General with no political experience – defeats career politician, from a career politician family - Adele Stevenson

JFK – a kid from the outside defeats Former Vice President, and current insider, Richard Nixon.

wallace map

Nixon gets a win but it’s against a split ticket. One, a career politician and super left winger Hubert Humphry. The other an Anti-Desegregation candidate and super knot head George Wallace. Nixon benefits from the Vietnam War, the opposition to the war and a hard shift of southern democrats running from their party based on desegregation laws.

For his Second Election he cheats and beats career politician George McGovern in a landslide. The cheating wasn’t necessary.

Nixon commits a crime and gets bounced. His replacement should have been Spiro Agnew but he is also gone from the mix for being a criminal – that leaves Gerald Ford.

Ford the career politician – a million years on the hill loses to a former peanut farmer and current governor of the state of Georgia, James Earl Carter.

Carter gets tangled up in a few things, such as high interest rates, decaying cities and a hostage situation in Iran. He is defeated by a perceived outsider Ronald Reagan.

Reagan then wins a second term by defeating a career politician and Carter’s Vice President Walter Mondale.

Here is a bit of an anomaly. The sitting Vice President George HW Bush was elected defeating a liberal governor from Mass – name Mike Dukakis. Bush, an insider, who had served as a House Member, Envoy to China, Ambassador to the United Nations, Chairman of the RNC,Director of the CIA and Vice President. His father served in the US Senate. He had the benefit of following a president that was liked at the time and rode his coat tails into office, in spite of his insider status.

That honeymoon doesn’t last long. A Kid Governor from the State Of Arkansas knocks him out – yet another loss to an outsider.

He draws two Terms – the first election he dethrones the insider the second election he beats Bob Dole, who had been on Capitol Hill from a few decades.

2000 – Vice President Al Gore vs a bumbling outsider Governor from Texas, George W Bush…Gore had the benefit of following a popular president, but he was from the hill. He was a Senator from Tennessee for years. A post previously held by his Father – the man grew up on the hill. It was a close race, but the inside guy got bumped.

george w bush5

Bush drags the US into a war that is becoming unpopular, who does the party select to try to dethrone him? A dude that has been on the hill for a million years John Kerry – The original outsider, Kerry loses.

2008 – A first term Senator from Illinois, Barak Obama, knocks the Insider Hillary out in the Democrat primary then goes on to defeat a dude that had been on the hill for a million years John McCain.

2012 – Obama hangs on against a pseudo insider, Mitt Romney – Romney has a cross between two Simpson character Ned Flanders and Mr. Burns. If someone says they want to stick it to the “man”, the “man” would be Mitt Romney.

Secretary Clinton you are fighting the weight of history. She is the insider, in fact, she is so much more inside than anyone that has been dubbed an insider before. She is so inside, you make John McCain’s claim of not being an insider and being a maverick look legitimate.

This isn’t a popularity contest – although it’s framed that way. People who lose an election are generally nice people that go on to win their previous seats, some get cabinet seats. I believe that Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama would be a formidable team on the Supreme Court, or send one off to the UN as Secretary General. There is a mass of history that shows that Hillary will not be the next president. If she is still standing in the general election, I will vote for her – but that’s one vote floating into a pool of 100 million votes.

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