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Friday November 17, 2017

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At long last, the first votes are counted. The Iowa caucus was conducted last evening. Without a doubt the results are interesting. Almost 1 year ago, a freshman Senator named Ted Cruz announced that he would be running for the office of President of the US. February 1, 2016, he took his first step toward this goal by winning in Iowa.

From the beginning of election polling, Iowa belonged to Donald Trump (caveat --- before the cycle started, JEB! was the shoe-in). Trump had faced competitors from time to time, Ben Carson gave him a run for a while, and Carly Fiorina was in and out of favor as well. Coming down to the wire, Ted Cruz was seen as a solid Number 2 in this race. The final poll of the race had Trump as a heavy favorite of 31% vs Cruz at 24% and Marco Rubio at 17%. The final result after the votes were counted Cruz 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio at 23%. These results state that more than 50% of GOP voters don’t like their party establishment because it’s a toss-up if the RNC hates Ted or Donald more – but they got half the vote.

How did the pollsters get this one so wrong? It’s not that difficult to figure this out.

Iowa GOP

Cruz is an Evangelical Christian. Iowa has lots of them. Evangelical Christians (or at least extremely religious people) do well in Iowa. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are the last two winners of Iowa. Cruz was the natural to woo these votes, with some support staying with Santorum, Huckabee and Ben Carson – all from the religious front.

Here are the two downfalls of Trump (when he first announced them, I thought he was brilliant.) They both involve Sarah Palin.

Trump went at the Evangelical vote. He was repeatedly seen holding his mother’s Bible, he pandered to Liberty University and went as far as drafting Sarah Palin to endorse him. Palin does well with Tea Party Voters, Conservatives and Evangelicals. Trump got a pile of guff about his move. I looked beyond what appeared to be a silly move for the first moment of brilliance.

Here was the strategy: "I may not convince the Evangelical base in Iowa that I am one of them, but I am going to try." Carson, Huckabee and Santorum are going to get killed in the voting, and if he appears to be half Evangelical, he can split their supporters between himself and Cruz- Cruz would be the natural resting place for these voters. If this move worked, it would have been a death blow to Cruz. The strategy may or may not have failed. I have no idea if the voter in Iowa saw through the Trump moves and stuck with the time tested Evangelical or if everyone simply underestimated Cruz’ ability to get his supporters to show up and vote. Trump is bombastic, but I don’t think his campaign is skilled in making sure the bus shows up at the mega church to drive the voters to the polls. What ever happened didn’t fare well for the Donald.

The next gaff – Sarah Palin. Let’s say you are a nice main stream Republican living in Iowa. You are presented with Donald day and night. Some things make sense about what he says. He is the front runner, you have to contend with that. He isn’t being bought by campaign contributions, he understands the world of business – he is as anti-Washington as any one and he is a huge outsider. Then he rolls out Sarah Palin. Palin is still being blamed for costing McCain the White House, and in many places people are angry simply because the White House is now occupied by a nice black family. Also Sarah Palin and her borderline lead-paint-ingestion-style cost these people there country and 7 years of hell. The nice urban/suburban main stream GOP voter ran like hell away from Sarah and into the arms of Marco Rubio.

Trump over-estimated Sarah Palins draw from the Tea Party / Evangelical crowd. Sarah scared away the moderates. Trump got the Trump voters and the first election is in the books.

On the Democrat side, the pollsters had been calling it a close race and when the last votes were counted – Hillary Clinton won the election with an additional 0.29% of the vote. It is also a statistical dead heat among delegates, Clinton had some Super Delegates in the bag already, so her delegate count will appear higher.

Iowa dems

So what’s next for Trump? I have a plan for him.

Do you remember a comedian named Andy Kaufman? Andy was a chronic prankster. He would create alter ego characters and not come out of them. He was an Eastern European simpleton, he was also a bombastic lounge singer named Tony Clifton. His comedy was almost painful to watch because he stayed in character so well. At one point, Andy quit comedy and became a Championship Wrestler who wrestled women. The man was brilliant and annoying at the same time. Andy died young and there were popular rumors that he faked his death and it was going to turn out to be a prank. Sadly, this punch line hasn’t come.

What does this have to do with Trump? Well, Trump is a business man playing the exact same character that Andy played as Tony Clifton. Tony had a New York accent that would insult his audience, he was loud and obnoxious. They are the same character for all intents and purposes.  

I firmly believe that Donald Trump really wants to help the United States. He is not in this for ego as some may claim, he believes he can help. This is an outline of how Trump can go down in history as being one of the Greatest Americans of all times.

Donald needs to stay in the race until all of the pikers are flushed out and financial support has dried up. This means making sure JEB! is done and gone. Cruz will implode on himself. The doom and gloom vampire act won’t play well nationally. He needs to continue to make the GOP establishment squirm. He does this well. They hate each other but somehow the establishment believes that Trump may be their only option for a candidate to run in November. This pits them against themselves and blocks support for any other candidate – the process becomes gridlocked.

Trump needs to keep bashing the “watch dog” of the GOP, Fox News. Neither side of that fight has been kind to the other. In the process, Fox is getting outed as being a shill for the GOP establishment to the mainstream. As if 40+ months of Benghazi wasn’t enough to prove that point, but it wasn’t happening to one of them – the Fox viewer.

DJT

Trump needs to keep the receipts and be prepared to speak openly about the behind-the-scenes shadiness of politics. Example – how big was the check he wrote Palin for the endorsement? How big was the endowment to Liberty U? I can’t imagine that either of these entities didn't get green mail to deliver for the big guy.

He needs to speak openly about what politicians he has purchased in the past,- how much they cost and what he received in return. You know he has collected a big list over the last 40 years.

On to the Trump addressing the Trump voter. These folks are generally under educated, working class, white people that feel threatened by the world they live in. Donald didn’t create these people, they exist in the USA and have decent numbers. These folks think Muslims are bad and that Mexicans are criminals – Donald didn’t sell them on this. Donald simply gave them a voice under the tone of not being politically correct. Donald, when he finally drops from the race needs to directly address this crew with the brutal truth. The people that follow that side, the Tony Clifton side of Trump are no better than the millions of Germans who followed Hitler in 1937. I can try to tell that crowd this, but they may actually pay attention if it comes from Trump.

So to summarize. Trump can fix everything wrong with US politics. He needs to point the finger at greed, corruption, bias, racism and how messed up the two parties system is and how twisted their media watchdogs are. This is all laying in front of him right now. How does he get away with this? He simply says this -I am Donald Trump and I am great. America Deserves Better – This exercise was just to make America Great Again. If he does this, he will fix many, many of our problems, or at least make them so visible that we will fix them ourselves. He will have made America Great Again – and every history book will talk about the Second American Revolution lead by Donald Trump. He can choose this path – or he can be viewed as 'an also ran' this November. The choice is his and his alone.

 

 

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